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  • Writer's pictureVSI

Since mid-2020, Wall Street institutions from Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase to Bank of America have generally believed that the next stage of the commodities super cycle has arrived. Three years on, energy and commodity prices are surging, delivering unprecedented gains across the board and showing no signs of slowing down anytime soon. If we follow the 4000% surge in the previous cycle, this rebound has just begun.


Phil Carr, co-founder and head of trading at The Gold & Silver Club, said: "Fast three years later, this commodities super cycle has gone from strength to strength and shows no signs of slowing down any time soon. As we enter the final period of the year Quarterly, 2023 is on track to post astronomical double- to triple-digit gains across 27 commodities ranging from metals to energy to agriculture for the third consecutive year, outperforming every other asset class there.”


He stressed that this was just the beginning.


Last week, a long list of the world's most powerful Wall Street institutions raised their price forecasts for the year ahead, saying "we are now officially entering the next phase of the commodities supercycle."


Commodities have experienced six supercycles since 1791, with each cycle averaging 12 to 24 years, and the market is now in the 7th supercycle, which began in March 2020.


The last commodities supercycle lasted from 1999 to 2011 and saw some explosive growth. Oil soared from $10 a barrel to $150, copper soared from 60 cents a pound to $4.60, gold soared from $250 an ounce to $1,921, and corn soared from $2 a bushel to $8.


"The parallels between then and now are too striking to ignore," Phil continued.


West Texas Intermediate crude oil is trading as high as $92 a barrel, up 41% since mid-June. Brent crude surged above $95 a barrel, hitting a new 2023 high. Over the past three months, the world's most-traded oil benchmark has gained an impressive 49% from its 2023 lows.

Elsewhere in energy markets, diesel prices surged above $140 a barrel, up more than 75% since the summer. The unstoppable rally in energy markets has also pulled many other commodities higher, including aluminum, copper, cobalt, nickel, lithium, palladium, platinum, zinc and uranium, which are currently trading at their highest levels since 2011.


The bullish momentum has also spread to agricultural markets, causing prices for a variety of commodities including orange juice, coffee, sugar, corn, wheat, cocoa, soybeans and rice to surge to record highs.

So, how much room for upside is left in this commodity super cycle?


Phil Outlook said that in the last super cycle from 1999 to 2011, commodity prices rose sharply by 4,000% in 12 years.

"If history is any guide, this rally is just getting started," he concluded.


自2020年中期以来,从高盛、摩根大通到美国银行,华尔街机构普遍认定大宗商品超级周期下一阶段已到来。三年时间过去,能源和大宗商品价格飙升,全面实现前所未有的收益,而且没有任何短期内放缓的迹象。若依照上一个周期4000%的暴涨潮,这场反弹才刚刚开始。


The Gold & Silver Club联合创始人兼交易主管Phil Carr表示:“一晃三年过去了,这个商品超级周期已经越来越强大,而且没有任何短期内放缓的迹象。随着我们进入今年的最后一个季度,2023年有望连续第三年实现从金属、能源到农业等27种大宗商品的天文数字般的两位数到三位数的升幅,跑赢其他所有大宗商品那里的资产类别。”


他强调,这仅仅是一个开始。


上周,一长串全球最强大的华尔街机构上调了对未来一年的价格预测,并表示“我们现在正式进入大宗商品超级周期的下一阶段”。


自1791年以来,大宗商品已经历过六次超级周期,平均每次周期为12至24年,而市场现在正处于2020年3月开始的第7次超级周期。


上一次大宗商品超级周期从1999年持续到2011年,并出现了一些爆炸性增长。石油一度从每桶10美元飙升至150美元,铜价从每磅60美分飙升至4.60美元,黄金从每盎司250美元飙升至1921美元,玉米从每蒲式耳2美元飙升至8美元。


“当时和现在的相似之处实在是太惊人了,不容忽视,”Phil继续补充。


西得克萨斯中质原油交易价格高达每桶92美元,自6月中旬以来升幅高达41%。布伦特原油飙升至每桶95美元以上,创下2023年新高。过去三个月,全球交易量最大的石油基准价格较2023年低点上涨了49%以上,令人惊叹。

在能源市场的其他地方,柴油价格飙升至每桶140美元以上,自夏季以来升幅超过75%。能源市场势不可挡的上涨也拉动许多其他大宗商品走高,包括铝、铜、钴、镍、锂、钯、铂、锌和铀,目前交易价格处于2011年以来的最高水平。


看涨势头也蔓延到农产品市场,导致橙汁、咖啡、糖、玉米、小麦、可可、大豆和大米等各种商品的价格飙升至历史新高。

那么,这一波大宗商品超级周期还剩下多少上涨空间呢?


Phil展望称,在1999至2011年的上一个超级周期中,大宗商品价格在12年内大幅上涨4000%。

“如果历史可以回顾的话,这次反弹才刚刚开始,”他总结道。

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